column: pat narduzzi's fate in pittsburgh shouldn't be determined by bowl record

Was the 2021 Pitt Panthers football team, quarterbacked by Kenny Pickett, the high point of the Pat Narduzzi era? It's hard to say what Pitt can reasonably expect to accomplish with the changing landscape of college football. Photo via Tigernet.com license https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/

​There was plenty of sourness after the Pitt football team lost to East Carolina in the GoBowling Military Bowl. How the Panthers lost should reflect on coach Pat Narduzzi. The Pirates were missing a significant amount of players and compete in a less prestigious league, the American Conference. 

Pitt were 13.5-point betting favorites. But the Panthers' offense struggled and came up short in a 23-17 defeat to end the year 8-5. While it's not great that Pitt lost to a Group of 6 team for the second consecutive year in a bowl game, what is a fair expectation for the program?

​With Western Pennsylvania's waning population providing fewer top-end prospects in the pipeline and the challenges of luring players from Florida and Texas to Western Pennsylvania, finishing 8-5 most seasons seems appropriate.

Maybe every couple of years, Pitt could hit double-digit victories like it did with the Kenny Pickett-led team in 2021. The Panthers finished with 11 wins for the first time since 1981 and won their first ACC championship. But that year is more likely to be the outlier. 

It's hard to tell how much Pitt will be able to raise financially in the current environment of NCAA football. Any deep dives on finding some numbers is mostly fruitless, as college football lacks transparency about spending with how quickly things are changing. Pittsburgh Public Source's reporting indicated it wasn't going to be easy for the university to determine that number.

Whether Narduzzi would be the guy who should be at the helm of such a program would be a good question. But given what he has available to him, Narduzzi has done a good job at Pitt. Not that things have been perfect. 

Narduzzi's had his fair share of stumbles, and his bravado can be a little tiring, but he has stabilized the program. Since Narduzzi took over, Pitt is 80-61 and 52-39 in conference. 

On the field, Narduzzi's teams have produced memorable moments. The 2022 Sun Bowl win over UCLA is one that stands out.

UCLA took the lead, 35-34, on Pitt with 34 seconds remaining after an 8-yard touchdown run by T.J. Harden. Pitt responded by going right down the field and winning on a 47-yard field goal by Ben Sauls. That allowed Pitt to finish the season with a 9-4 record and ranked in the top 25.

The issue for Narduzzi is that those two seasons show what is possible when they get a special group together. Other Pitt teams, like the Panthers' 2016 team that upended No. 2 Clemson 43-42 on the road, flashed potential but wasted too many opportunities. 

Since that win in El Paso, Pitt's stumbles have been amplified by late-season collapses. After falling to 3-9 in 2023, Pitt started last season with seven straight wins and climbed to 18th in the Associated Press poll. Any talk of an ACC title -- or an appearance in the College Football Playoff -- was quickly extinguished with a loss to Virginia that kicked off a string of six straight losses.

The Panthers showed they were resilient this season, shaking off a 2-2 start with a five game-winning streak. When Pitt had a chance to flex its muscles in front of a national audience against Notre Dame, the Panthers wilted, losing 37-15. While Pitt bounced back with an upset road win over Georgia Tech, the Panthers followed it with a crushing loss to Miami and the ECU debacle.

This was the third season where Narduzzi led a team into a bowl game with an opportunity to reach nine wins. In 2015 and 2016, Pitt finished 8-5 after losing to Navy and Northwestern in the Military and Pinstripe Bowls, respectively. The Panthers fell flat this season.

Die hards will want more, as they should. But with how things are changing financially in college football, it seems like Narduzzi has Pitt pressed firmly against its ceiling.

Josh Rizzo is the editor and publisher of Pittsburgh Preps and Colleges. Story ideas can be submitted to [email protected] or on X @J_oshRizzo